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Post by 3catcircus on Sept 23, 2020 10:29:16 GMT
Hospitalization rates? Didn't all those experts and government leaders say we needed two weeks of lockdown to flatten the curve of hospitalizations? We've flattened the curve and spread the infections over a longer period of time. You can't live your life and expect to not get this (or any other virus) unless you consider hunkering down in a basement to be living. Sweden is estimated to have herd immunity already. Italy was overwhelmed back in March because all of their sick people were elderly. NY was a disaster because they were they port of entry. You can do a heatmap and clearly see how the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths petered out there further away you get from the city. Don't let the "we're close to ICU capacity" fool you - ICUs are always operated at close to capacity. If you are looking at data on hospitalizations you need to look at prior actuals and not models of future predictions - the IHME model, for example, has never been anywhere close to correct. So we know that COVID-19 can spread rapidly. Exactly how isn't entirely understood. We had a huge spike over the summer, which has since come down, but is still higher than pretty much anywhere. The two weeks of lockdown DID help some, though we probably reopened too early which explains the spike. Now the spread is actually mostly through social contact at restaurants and bars. We still need to continue with social distancing and wearing masks. We don't have a treatment that has been proven (proven with studies, not anecdotes) to work well enough. We don't have a vaccine, or even know if a vaccine will work. Until we have one of these things, we will need to continue with social distancing and masks. If we don't, then hospitals WILL get overwhelmed. Oh, you might be right that rural areas won't have problems to start, but it won't end that way unless we go back to social distancing and masks. And you're still ignoring that COVID-19 does more to people who get it than most any other diseases you know. If we don't keep a lid on it, there are going to be a lot of people who won't be able to work for a while. And some of them won't be able to work again. Huge spike over the summer? Ethical Skeptic and Kyle Lamb have done a series of analyses showing that the spikes are due to finally getting through a backlog of testing but reporting the results in such a way as to have it appear that they are "new" cases. You have to look at the date that the test sample was collected, not the date the results are reported. As such, the peak was back in April/May. All truly new cases are proving to not require hospitalization anywhere close to the rates earlier in the year, with far fewer deaths, because the people now being infected are younger and healthier. The winter/spring infected were old and feeble - the same people who normally die from flu, pneumonia, etc. that time of year. I'm not ignoring that COVID-19 can affect someone differently than other diseases. It's just doing it for a small number of people who have comorbidities or genetic factors or complications of being placed on a vent or ECMO. Most recent was a 28 yr old Dr. Who died. It's not until you read past the headline that you find out she had asthma which complicated her infection (as it would if she got a normal chest cold, the flu, or bronchitis) and actually died from complications of a brain bleed after being placed on ECMO. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29788836/ is a good article on the high incidence of brain bleeds occurring with ECMO. As to social distancing - I hate people, so that's never been a problem for me. I barely tolerate my friends and family sometimes and being able to work from home has done wonders for my productivity without having to deal with interruptions.
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Post by evileeyore on Sept 23, 2020 13:46:15 GMT
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Post by cyphersmith on Sept 23, 2020 14:43:44 GMT
So we know that COVID-19 can spread rapidly. Exactly how isn't entirely understood. We had a huge spike over the summer, which has since come down, but is still higher than pretty much anywhere. The two weeks of lockdown DID help some, though we probably reopened too early which explains the spike. Now the spread is actually mostly through social contact at restaurants and bars. We still need to continue with social distancing and wearing masks. We don't have a treatment that has been proven (proven with studies, not anecdotes) to work well enough. We don't have a vaccine, or even know if a vaccine will work. Until we have one of these things, we will need to continue with social distancing and masks. If we don't, then hospitals WILL get overwhelmed. Oh, you might be right that rural areas won't have problems to start, but it won't end that way unless we go back to social distancing and masks. And you're still ignoring that COVID-19 does more to people who get it than most any other diseases you know. If we don't keep a lid on it, there are going to be a lot of people who won't be able to work for a while. And some of them won't be able to work again. Huge spike over the summer? Ethical Skeptic and Kyle Lamb have done a series of analyses showing that the spikes are due to finally getting through a backlog of testing but reporting the results in such a way as to have it appear that they are "new" cases. You have to look at the date that the test sample was collected, not the date the results are reported. As such, the peak was back in April/May. All truly new cases are proving to not require hospitalization anywhere close to the rates earlier in the year, with far fewer deaths, because the people now being infected are younger and healthier. The winter/spring infected were old and feeble - the same people who normally die from flu, pneumonia, etc. that time of year. I'm not ignoring that COVID-19 can affect someone differently than other diseases. It's just doing it for a small number of people who have comorbidities or genetic factors or complications of being placed on a vent or ECMO. Most recent was a 28 yr old Dr. Who died. It's not until you read past the headline that you find out she had asthma which complicated her infection (as it would if she got a normal chest cold, the flu, or bronchitis) and actually died from complications of a brain bleed after being placed on ECMO. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29788836/ is a good article on the high incidence of brain bleeds occurring with ECMO. As to social distancing - I hate people, so that's never been a problem for me. I barely tolerate my friends and family sometimes and being able to work from home has done wonders for my productivity without having to deal with interruptions. How is it that the spike is due to testing when there was a spike in deaths and hospitalizations that followed the spike in numbers of cases?
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Post by 3catcircus on Sept 23, 2020 15:22:18 GMT
Huge spike over the summer? Ethical Skeptic and Kyle Lamb have done a series of analyses showing that the spikes are due to finally getting through a backlog of testing but reporting the results in such a way as to have it appear that they are "new" cases. You have to look at the date that the test sample was collected, not the date the results are reported. As such, the peak was back in April/May. All truly new cases are proving to not require hospitalization anywhere close to the rates earlier in the year, with far fewer deaths, because the people now being infected are younger and healthier. The winter/spring infected were old and feeble - the same people who normally die from flu, pneumonia, etc. that time of year. I'm not ignoring that COVID-19 can affect someone differently than other diseases. It's just doing it for a small number of people who have comorbidities or genetic factors or complications of being placed on a vent or ECMO. Most recent was a 28 yr old Dr. Who died. It's not until you read past the headline that you find out she had asthma which complicated her infection (as it would if she got a normal chest cold, the flu, or bronchitis) and actually died from complications of a brain bleed after being placed on ECMO. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29788836/ is a good article on the high incidence of brain bleeds occurring with ECMO. As to social distancing - I hate people, so that's never been a problem for me. I barely tolerate my friends and family sometimes and being able to work from home has done wonders for my productivity without having to deal with interruptions. How is it that the spike is due to testing when there was a spike in deaths and hospitalizations that followed the spike in numbers of cases? It's not due to more testing. It's due to the backlog of reporting of tests, etc. - the pull forward effect when you report info well after it occurred but don't indicate as such. @kylamb8 has good info. His Twitter feed has a good analysis showing IFR is about a third of a percent overall and is really only a concern for anyone over age 50 (50-64 estimated at a quarter of a percent.). It also clearly shows why CFR is not a good estimate of true fatality rate. If I could figure out how to, I'll post the relevant table here.
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Post by cyphersmith on Sept 23, 2020 16:13:42 GMT
How is it that the spike is due to testing when there was a spike in deaths and hospitalizations that followed the spike in numbers of cases? It's not due to more testing. It's due to the backlog of reporting of tests, etc. - the pull forward effect when you report info well after it occurred but don't indicate as such. @kylamb8 has good info. His Twitter feed has a good analysis showing IFR is about a third of a percent overall and is really only a concern for anyone over age 50 (50-64 estimated at a quarter of a percent.). It also clearly shows why CFR is not a good estimate of true fatality rate. If I could figure out how to, I'll post the relevant table here. There was still a spike in deaths and hospitalizations starting in July. That's not accounted for by any change in test reporting.
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Post by 3catcircus on Sept 23, 2020 17:01:27 GMT
It's not due to more testing. It's due to the backlog of reporting of tests, etc. - the pull forward effect when you report info well after it occurred but don't indicate as such. @kylamb8 has good info. His Twitter feed has a good analysis showing IFR is about a third of a percent overall and is really only a concern for anyone over age 50 (50-64 estimated at a quarter of a percent.). It also clearly shows why CFR is not a good estimate of true fatality rate. If I could figure out how to, I'll post the relevant table here. There was still a spike in deaths and hospitalizations starting in July. That's not accounted for by any change in test reporting. That'd be due to coming out of lockdown, and is expected. Funny thing is, if you were to follow what Sweden did, that 2nd spike is way lower than those who lock down. Thought experiment I saw on this and find interesting. What happens if you have a harmless virus with IFR=0 and R0=3.3 that is detectable via PCR for 19 days? Doing nothing results in the virus burning itself out quickly with deaths at 589/million. You still have people dying even though the virus itself didn't cause their death. If you issue a mandatory lockdown for 6 months, instead of one peak, you get two, with a rate of death of 530/million. If you do what Sweden did, you get the 1st peak, a turn back upwards with a spike at 353/million as you are on your way down from the peak, and then a *much* lower 2nd peak. If you the fo this analysis using generally assumed IFR and R0 for COVID, you get similar results - the Sweden path always is better than the Madrid/UK/US path. Most interesting, with an IFR of 0 for the harmless virus, where are all the deaths coming from? One must look at the effect of false positives due to seeing PCR CT too high, resulting in viral debris ("dead" COVID RNA) being counted as a positive, so the detected count goes up, even as the real count is dropping. I'd look at Ethical Skeptics twitter for details. I'm not a statistician, so for a lot of his analyses I only understand the basics of it. He has indicated that 56% of reported deaths reported each day are from 3-20 weeks prior, with the average lag between case and death report having grown from 19 days to 45 days. The second spike is due to that...
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Post by kirinke on Sept 25, 2020 22:40:43 GMT
Sweden is also much less populated than the US and that population is overall healthier. So while it works there, it wouldn't work here.
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Post by 3catcircus on Sept 25, 2020 23:08:49 GMT
Sweden is also much less populated than the US and that population is overall healthier. So while it works there, it wouldn't work here. It absolutely would. I'd explain it to you but there's a lot of math involved.
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Post by kirinke on Sept 25, 2020 23:40:01 GMT
If you base your math off of 20 year old sources that aren't even about the equation you're trying to solve, I'll pass.
Personally, I trust real medical experts on the situation rather than blogs and twitter accounts.
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Post by mustrumridcully on Sept 27, 2020 19:27:27 GMT
There is evidence that it is infectious before you get symptoms, in fact, you seem to be most infectious 1-3 days before showing any symptoms. My source unfortunately is a German podcast with one of the top Germans specialists on Corona (who actually created the PCR test). I don't really feel like walking through the podcast notes and see which studies they were referring, and it could very well be that he's actually the primary source anyway.
But the CDC recommendations mention this already (apparently,since June 20th?). If you've a link, I'd love to see it. It sounds like you are referring to pre-symptomatic (going to get sick) vs asymptomatic (got it, got over it, didn't know you had it). As to PCR - I don't think that a German invented it, seeing as how Cary Mullis is credited with inventing PCR. Or are you referring to the specific protocol for using PCR on COVID? Would you not agree with Dr. Mullis who had previously asserted that PCR shouldn't be used for diagnostic testing since it was intended as a manufacturing tool? The PCR test specifically for this strain of the Corona virus, IIRC, not the general method.
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Post by evileeyore on Feb 13, 2021 0:32:42 GMT
Once again the racist Left rears it's ugly head.
Note, I'm not bothering to copying over the links. Go read the article on Aero, I'm copying it here for the terminally lazy.
It's rare I contemplate how to find someone and end them. But Katja Guenther is on my "When I'm diagnosed with only a few months left to live" list...
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Post by 3catcircus on Feb 13, 2021 0:51:20 GMT
Once again the racist Left rears it's ugly head. Note, I'm not bothering to copying over the links. Go read the article on Aero, I'm copying it here for the terminally lazy. It's rare I contemplate how to find someone and end them. But Katja Guenther is on my "When I'm diagnosed with only a few months left to live" list... I'd also include on your list all the garbage humans Guenther defends.
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Post by evileeyore on Feb 13, 2021 1:03:51 GMT
I'd also include on your list all the garbage humans Guenther defends. If I only have a few months left to live, I'll only have time if I have a more... nuclear option. Just too many garbage humans to hunt down, even if I had a whole life time. So I keep a tidy list, short and doable with some planning, money, and nothing left to lose.
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Post by evileeyore on Feb 25, 2021 0:32:05 GMT
There has been another rash of attacks against minorities, previously against jews, this time against elderly asians. Both times it was black perpetrators, but how has the Left decided to respond?
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Post by evileeyore on Feb 26, 2021 14:33:08 GMT
Wine Brunch Ice Cream is back on the menu ladies!
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